The betting markets are cooling off fast. On Polymarket, where users wager real money on global events, the odds of a US strike on Iran have dropped to just 3% before February 9. That shift comes days after the first round of US Iran talks in Oman and ahead of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s expected White House visit.
Even looking at the rest of the month, traders are not pricing in immediate action. The probability of a strike by the end of February now stands at 23%, down sharply from previous levels. The numbers climb later in the spring, with bettors giving it a 41% chance by the end of March and 53% by June 30. When it comes to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, only 7% think he will be removed by the end of February, while 81% believe nothing changes for him in the near term.
Polymarket is not a poll. It is a live market. Users buy and sell shares on outcomes, and the price reflects what people are actually willing to risk money on. The platform recently grabbed headlines after a user reportedly walked away with more than $400,000 betting on regime change in Venezuela days before it happened. Right now, the message from the market is clear: despite the rhetoric, traders are not betting on an immediate US strike on Iran.
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